State of the Arctic - Operational oceanography and forecasting
- 13:00 From the Darkness into the Light: Continuous glider occupation in the Barents Sea
Authors: Marie Porter ( Scottish Association for Marine Science ); Heather Bouman ( Oxford University ); Andrew Orkney ( Oxford University ); Sian Henley ( University of Edinburgh ); Byongjun Hwang ( University of Huddersfield ); Emily Venables ( Scottish Association for Marine Science ); Estelle Dumont ( Scottish Association for Marine Science ); Finlo Cottier ( Scottish Association for Marine Science/UiT )
In the Arctic shelf seas, the preconditioning of the water column during the under-sampled Polar-night period exerts an important control on the onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom, yet the mechanisms behind this control remain poorly understood. Acquiring seasonally-resolved observations in these regions is challenging due to ice and access. However, robotic platforms, particularly gliders, offer a means of acquiring such data. We deployed Slocum Gliders in the Barents Sea between January and June 2018 during the Polar night. These gliders completed 18 transects along a line at 30oE between approximately 30km from the ice edge and 100km further south.
Throughout the dark Polar-night, the water column remained well-mixed in the Atlantic regions whilst stratification persisted north of the Polar-Front. After the light returned, in early April we detected the first weak signals of the return of chlorophyll-a in the water column, followed three weeks later by full bloom conditions. Throughout these three weeks we see the weak chlorophyll-a signal progressing northward before the spring bloom is initiated immediately north of the polar front, in the highly stratified Arctic Water. Here we will show the relative importance of light and stratification on the timing and location of the spring bloom.
- 13:15 SEDNA "Safe maritime operations under extreme conditions: "
Seasonal Predictions of the ice-edge with the state-of-the-art coupled global ocean-atmosphere-ice ensemble prediction system Glosea5.
Authors: Bernd Becker ( Met Office ); Nicolas Fournier ( Met Office ); Ed Blockley ( Met Office )
To enhance safety in maritime operations in the Arctic, the Met Office Glosea5 seasonal forecasts are analysed to provide an assessment of the ice edge by plotting the 10, 50 and 90% ice concentration contour. The first 7 weeks of the 7 month forecast are derived from 56 ensemble members, dropping to 28 members for the remainder from collating all available forecast runs over a 14 day period. A new assessment is made available every day.
An observation based assessment of the ice edge over the recent past derived from ocean data assimilation serves to "calibrate" the seasonal forecast by fixing the ice-edge to match a small range of probabilities from the ensemble forecast. Recent forecasts through the opening of the northern sea route, the first ice free day, minimal sea-ice extent and the closing of the northern sea routes in the past year may be compared with observations. This is the first time that seasonal forecast capability is applied for shipping in the Arctic. Work is carried out under the SEDNA consortium umbrella.
- 13:30 Weather and ocean forecasting for increased prepardness in the Arctic
Authors: Kai Håkon Christensen ( MET Norway ); Nils Melsom Kristensen ( MET Norway ); Jostein Brændshøi ( MET Norway ); Yurii Batrak ( MET Norway ); Eirik Mikal Samuelsen ( MET Norway ); Jørn Kristiansen ( MET Norway ); Lars Anders Breivik ( MET Norway )
Air-sea interaction processes are particularly important at high latitudes, hence operational services need to be based on fully coupled earth system models. A high resolution ocean-sea ice model component is needed for predicting day-to-day changes in the sea ice cover, estimating the impact of pollutants from remote sources, and to support oil spill mitigation and search-and-rescue operations. As part of the Arktis2030 programme, MET Norway is now operationalizing such ocean-sea ice model for the Barents Sea and the areas around Svalbard that will constitute the oceanic component of an earth system model in later developments. This work will significantly improve our predictive abilities for oceanic transport and sea ice. Over land, climate change results in more rain instead of snow and more extreme precipitation events. In the second phase of the project, we will therefore focus on the changes in precipitation and the associated higher risk of avalanches and mudslides. Central to the project is the use of observations, both in situ and from satellite, for data assimilation in a high resolution earth system model. Examples from the ocean-sea ice model component will be shown and our development plans for the weather prediction model component will be summarized.
- 13:45 Arctic ocean forecasting and a 26-years reanalysis from the Copernicus Marine Services.
Authors: Laurent Bertino ( NERSC ); Jiping Xie ( NERSC ); Annette Samuelsen ( NERSC ); Mostafa Bakhoday-Paskyabi ( NERSC ); Roshin Raj ( NERSC ); Malte Mueller ( MET Norway ); Alfatih Ali ( MET Norway ); Arne Melsom ( MET Norway ); Patrik Bohlinger ( MET Norway ); Vidar Lien ( IMR )
The Copernicus Arctic Marine Forecasting Center (ARC MFC) provides 10-days forecasts of the ocean currents, sea ice, marine biogeochemistry and waves on a daily basis and a 26 years reanalysis of the Arctic Ocean, updated every year. The ARC MFC is powered by the Topaz configuration of the HYCOM model, coupled to the sea ice model CICE, the ecosystem model ECOSMO, and assimilating the following data with the Ensemble Kalman Filter: along-track sea level anomalies, sea surface temperatures, sea ice concentrations, sea ice drift, sea ice thickness and in situ temperature and salinity profiles. Waves are forecasted using an Arctic configuration of the WAM model. We review the present skills of the system and its ongoing developments: assimilation of ice thickness, increased horizontal and vertical resolution and the production of ocean climate indicators such as water transports in the Nordic Seas.
- 14:00 Integrating Arctic Observations - the INTAROS project
Authors: Geir Ottersen ( Institute of Marine Research )
INTAROS - Integrated Arctic Observation System - is one of four H2020 projects supporting EU´s increased focus on the Arctic and an important contribution to the implementation of EU´s Arctic Strategy. INTAROS brings together expertise from 49 collaborating organizations in 20 different countries and has an overall budget of 15, 5 M Euros. This talk will briefly present INTAROS in general and especially demonstrate applications being developed to support different groups of decision-makers and stakeholders.
The environment in the Arctic region is changing significantly and rapidly, affecting, e.g., natural hazards, extreme weather, sea level change, coastal erosion and ecosystem alterations. Furthermore, human activities are expected to increase, causing additional impact on the vulnerable environment. In order to ensure sustainable development of the Arctic INTAROS will develop an efficient integrated Arctic Observation System (iAOS) by extending, improving and unifying existing and evolving measurement systems. The project will capitalize on existing observing systems and databases, but will also install new and dedicated instrumentation to measure the marine, atmosphere, cryosphere, and terrestrial environments. These new in-situ measurements will fill information gaps, complementing remotely sensed data and improving models.
An important part of INTAROS is to demonstrate applications based on the iAOS and tailored to support different groups of users. These include maritime and marine industries (also fishing), weather services, climate prediction, governance and surveillance, local communities, Arctic Council working groups and applied researchers. The development of such applications has been initialized very recently, examples from ongoing work will be shown.
- 14:15 Advanced prediction in the Arctic and beyond: Half way into the APPLICATE project
Authors: Luisa Cristini ( Alfred Wegener Institut ); Thomas Jung ( Alfred Wegener Institut ); Gerlis Fugmann ( APECS International Directorate, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research )
The Arctic is changing rapidly carrying the potential to influence weather and climate in mid-latitudes. It is therefore crucial to predict these changes and their impacts. Recognizing this priority, a European consortium of scientists set out to advance our capability to predict the weather and climate in the Arctic and beyond in the framework of the EU-funded project APPLICATE. The project aims to improve the representation of key processes in coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, in order to deliver enhanced numerical weather forecast, seasonal to interannual climate predictions and centennial climate projections. The linkages between the Arctic and mid-latitudes are explored through a coordinated multi-model approach using coupled atmosphere-ocean models. APPLICATE also provides guidance for the design of the future Arctic observing system to improve our capacity to reanalyse the climate system and enhance models’ predicting skills. The APPLICATE Consortium is also engaging in collaborations with other programs (e.g., within the EU-funded Arctic Cluster), and the project has also a strong user engagement and training components.
In this presentation, we will give an overview of APPLICATE activities and as part of our effort to understand changes in the Arctic and their far-reaching impacts for both environment and communities. We will summarise the main achievements of the project since the start in November 2016 and outline the work of the various task teams until the end of the project in 2020.
Wednesday 23rd January 2019
13:00 - 14:30